Thailand’s ruling party runs on nationalist, establishment vote pitch

BANGKOK – Just over a week before Thailand’s general election, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul trekked to the Thai-Cambodian border and posed with front-line soldiers as the national flag fluttered in the breeze, protective gear layered over his government uniform. 

That embrace of the military, and apparent backing of the country’s conservative establishment, has given Mr Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party an edge in the Feb 8 vote.

Once seen as a mid-sized broker skilled at trading seats for Cabinet posts, it has steadily expanded its footprint, leveraging its time in government and pragmatic deal-making to court voters beyond its traditional rural strongholds. 

As nationalist sentiment surged following

2024’s flare-up along the border

, Mr Anutin has tapped public concerns over security and national pride by promising stability and a firm defence of Thai sovereignty – a message that has resonated as tensions linger. 

“I will keep the border crossings closed, I will protect your land, I will build a wall for you,” Mr Anutin said at a rally last week in Ubon Ratchathani, one of seven provinces bordering Cambodia and one which saw thousands forced to evacuate during the clashes.

“If they fire artillery at Thailand, they don’t know what’s coming for them. They won’t dare. We’ve shown them. We’ve protected every square inch of our land.” 

Such close alignment with the military sets Bhumjaithai – which means “proud to be Thai” – apart from the rest of the parties in an election likely to produce another fractured Parliament.

That has reinforced Mr Anutin’s image as the prime ministerial candidate that has the strongest backing of the establishment since the exit of Mr Prayut Chan-o-cha, a former general who ruled from 2014 to 2023 after leading a coup. 

It has also helped that Mr Anutin rose to power in 2025 after his predecessor from a rival party, Ms

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was ousted

over her handling of the border conflict. 

The controversy created a rupture between then ruling Pheu Thai Party – controlled by the family of political heavyweight and establishment-irritant Thaksin Shinawatra – and the conservatives who had allowed him to return from 15 years of exile.

Their alliance was grounded in blocking the rise of Move Forward, the former incarnation of the reformist People’s Party. 

“Anutin has effectively positioned himself as the rightful conservative successor, one who can be relied upon to defend the royalist-military establishment against perceived encroachment from both progressive forces and Shinawatra-aligned parties,” said Dr Napon Jatusripitak, director of the Centre for Politics and Geopolitics at think-tank Thailand Future Institute. 

The People’s Party, and the progressive movement behind it, has accused establishment elites of holding back Thailand’s economy by choosing status quo instead of disruptive reforms that are needed to modernise the country’s bureaucratic and industrial infrastructure. The pro-establishment conservatives, for their part, brand the reformists as threats to the social and political order. 

Bhumjaithai is mounting a late push to close the gap with the People’s Party, even going so far as to cast the race as one that is between “those who love the nation and those who don’t”, as Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn put it.

Because no party is projected to win a clear majority, a second-place finish could still offer a path to power, given the conservative establishment’s preference to keep progressives out of government.

In his first big rally in Bangkok on Jan 30, Mr Anutin also vowed to protect the monarchy.

A campaign to loosen the country’s lese majeste law, which punishes criticism of the monarchy with up to 15 years in jail, helped Move Forward to a surprise victory in 2023. It was also the reason it was

disbanded by a court a year later

.

Amending the law “will never happen and will never succeed because you have us”, Mr Anutin told hundreds of supporters in Bangkok’s central Lumpini park. 

Founded by political power-broker Newin Chidchob as a breakaway faction from a party backed by the Shinawatra family, Bhumjaithai’s support is rooted in provincial networks, particularly in the north-east. 

Since its 2008 start, the party has secured influence within successive coalition governments and survived multiple cycles of political upheaval in Thai politics.

Until it pulled out of the Shinawatra-led administration in 2025, Bhumjaithai was part of every military-backed or civilian administration since 2019. 

Associate Professor Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, said: “Unlike Thaksin, Newin has stayed out of the picture to play a supporting role in order to make the party a core force and build confidence in Anutin.” 

Analysts say Bhumjaithai could win as many as 150 seats out of a possible 500 in this election, up from 71 when it placed third in 2023. The party’s extensive local networks – a decisive advantage in constituency races – could deliver stronger results than polls suggested, particularly in harder-to-survey areas.

According to data journalism outlet Rocket Media Lab, 86 of Thailand’s 215 local political dynasties are contesting the election under Bhumjaithai’s banner, compared with 48 the last time.

The People’s Party has members from only 10 smaller families running for office. 

Bhumjaithai’s consolidation of local political families is seen as key to gaining more seats as those strong relationships with local voters trump party allegiances, said Prof Olarn.

The strategy reflects lessons learnt from 2023, when conservative votes were split among multiple candidates.

Ms Supamas Isarabhakdi, who oversees Bhumjaithai’s campaign in Bangkok – the People’s Party’s stronghold – recently urged conservative voters to strategically rally behind Mr Anutin: “If you don’t vote for us, they’ll definitely win.” BLOOMBERG